What Is The Exact Temperature Right Now - The mean annual temperature ranges from about −10°C on the coast to −60°C in the high interior.
Near the coast, the temperature can exceed +10°C in summer and drop below −40°C in winter. In the high inland parts, it can rise to around -30°C in summer but fall below -80°C in winter.
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The lowest temperature ever recorded on Earth's surface was -89.2°C at Vostok Station on July 21, 1983.
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It is usually surrounded by a low-pressure belt that contains several depressions. This is called the "circumpolar trough". But the interior of the continent is dominated by high pressure. These conditions set the stage for the formation of katabatic winds.
Katabatic winds are created when radiative cooling over the elevated Antarctic ice sheet produces very cold, dense air. Cold, dense air flows down and is replaced by air descending from above. The resulting katabatic winds are accelerated downward, enhanced by the merging of glacial valleys.
Katabatic winds blow with great consistency over large areas. On shore, they lose their driving force and quickly dissipate into the sea.
Low pressure systems near the coast can interact with katabatic winds to increase their strength. The resulting wind speed can exceed 100 km/h for days. Wind gusts well over 200 km/h were measured.
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The dry air that sinks in creates a small cloud. However, there is more moisture around the coast and low pressure systems have more influence. This means that cloudy conditions are more common near the coast, especially on the Antarctic Peninsula.
Rain is observed near the coast, but most of the precipitation is in the form of snow or ice crystals.
Windy conditions make it difficult to accurately measure snowfall. Average snow accumulation across the continent is estimated to be around 150 mm of water per year. On the high plateau, the annual value is below 50 mm. Near the coast it usually exceeds 200 mm, with the largest being over 1000 mm for an area near the Bellingshausen Sea.
Loose snow can be collected and blown away. When the snow is still below eye level, it is called drift snow. When it is raised above eye level, it is called snowfall. Winds above 30 km/h can cause blowing snow, while winds above 60 km/h are more likely to cause blowing snow. Snowy wind can make visibility very difficult.
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When the wind speed is gusty or stronger for at least 1 hour, the temperature is below 0°C, and the visibility is reduced to 100 m or less, it is a blizzard.
Whitening is an optical phenomenon. Uniform lighting conditions can make it impossible to distinguish shadows, landmarks, or the horizon. This can happen when the snowpack is intact and the sky is cloudy. Graying is a serious danger because it causes a loss of perspective and direction. It is physically impossible to make long-term weather forecasts. However, AccuWeather has produced very accurate 90-day forecasts for years. (Video: The Washington Post)
Imagine someone telling you the weather forecast for New Year's Eve today, two months in advance, with the exact temperature ranges and precipitation to the nearest hundredth of an inch. Sounds too good to be true, right?
A new study in Science says that's simply not possible. But how far can we go with a daily forecast?
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"The skillful prediction time for instantaneous weather at midlatitudes is about 10 days, which serves as a practical limit of predictability," according to a study published in April in the Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences.
These restrictions shouldn't change very soon. Even if scientists had the data they needed and a better understanding of all the ins and outs of forecasting, skillful forecasts could only cover about 14 or 15 days, according to a 2019 study, because of the chaotic nature of the atmosphere.
“Two weeks is about right. This is as close to the ultimate limit as possible," the study's lead author told Science Magazine.
The American Meteorological Society agrees. Their statement on the forecast restrictions introduced from 2015 states that "at present, forecasts of daily or specific weather conditions do not show useful skill beyond eight days, meaning their accuracy is low".
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Although the American Meteorological Society strongly advises against issuing specific forecasts for more than eight days, the well-known weather provider AccuWeather has been producing detailed forecasts for several days for years. It released 45-day forecasts in 2013, which it extended to 90 days in 2016 — and was heavily criticized for doing so.
On October 12th of this year, AccuWeather even wrote a report including specific snow forecasts for major cities 30 to 90 days into the future:
"There will be snow on Thanksgiving Day or the day after in Chicago, Detroit and Green Bay," AccuWeather wrote, while calling for snow around New Year's in Boston, Minneapolis and Salt Lake City.
AccuWeather's long-range forecasting approach has drawn criticism in the weather business for being too specific and failing to communicate uncertainty.
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"We just don't have the data available to do [what AccuWeather does]," wrote Beth Carpenter, a meteorologist consultant who owns and operates Thermodynamic Solutions. Forecasts, she said, were "unattainable and should not be relied upon."
We asked AccuWeather about their rationale and goals for continuing to publish these forecasts, including snowfall forecasts. "Keep checking AccuWeather's forecast day after day for 90 days," Communications Director Rhonda Seaton replied.
"Personally, I think it's marketing," said Victor Gensini, an assistant professor of atmospheric sciences at Northern Illinois University who specializes in long-range severe weather forecasts.
Gensini said that if AccuWeather claims these forecasts have value, it will have to prove it by objectively examining their accuracy and sharing the results, producing what is known as a forecast verification. For example, the National Hurricane Center evaluates the performance of its forecasts after each hurricane season, both for storm tracking and intensity forecasts, and publishes this information publicly.
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"[AccuWeather] only does half the job," Gensini said. “It's easy for anyone with social media or a large, successful company to make long-term predictions. … I do not take any prediction seriously unless there is confirmation of it. If they show that they are [accurate], we can start this discussion.
When tested by outsiders (see here, here, here, and here), AccuWeather's long-term forecasts generally failed to show a value between nine and 11 days into the future (offering in many cases less accurate forecasts than historical averages). , in line with what science says is the limit of these particular predictions.
Outside meteorologists, some of whom may compete with AccuWeather, said they were concerned that simply publishing the 90-day forecast would damage credibility across the board.
"These specific long-range weather forecasts are hurting the weather business," wrote Beau Dodson, a meteorologist who runs his own forecasting business. "This leads to a loss of confidence in meteorologists."
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While the lines are drawn in terms of very specific forecast limits, called "deterministic forecasts," meteorologists have developed and continue to refine techniques for more generalized long-term outlooks expressed using probabilities or probabilities.
You see it with seasonal forecasts, with phrases like "above average chance for a cool winter" or "below average hurricane activity is likely." For example, the federal government's official winter forecast released in October predicted an above-average chance of a relatively warm winter for much of the United States, but did not specify precipitation amounts and daytime temperatures.
These probabilistic predictions are an attempt to determine the probability of something happening. Thanks to a better understanding of how the ocean and atmosphere work, as well as increased computing power, researchers and forecasters have been able to improve this type of forecast.
Gensini, for example, recently published a study in the journal Geophysical Research Letters explaining how his team was able to "predict the potential for a prolonged period of favorable extreme weather almost four weeks in advance" that would lead to the historic tornado outbreak in May. . His prediction was conveyed using probabilities.
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The Washington Post is an AccuWeather customer for weather services and forecasts in its print edition, for forecasts up to 10 days into the future. The instrumental temperature record is a record of Earth's climate temperatures based on direct instrument-based measurements of air temperature and ocean temperature. Instrumental temperature records are distinguished from indirect reconstructions using indirect climate data such as tree rings and ocean sediments.
Instrument-based data is collected from thousands of weather stations, buoys and ships around the world. Although many densely populated areas have a high density of measurements, observations are more widespread in sparsely populated areas such as polar regions and deserts, as well as many parts of Africa and South America.
Historically, measurements were made using manually read mercury or alcohol thermometers, but increasingly they are made using electronic sensors that automatically transmit data. The oldest temperature record is the Ctral gland temperature data series, which begins in 1659. The oldest near-global records begin in the 1850s.
So are the temperatures
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